Should Boise State play for the BCS National Title?

As the laser ink is drying on this article, (2) Auburn is losing to Georgia. The Georgia Bulldogs are 3-4 in the SEC and 5-5 overall. Auburn is undefeated, but their schedule never gets questioned, even if the SEC is having a down year. I cannot help but marvel at the lack of scrutiny given to perennial top-10 BCS teams, especially the LSUs, Ohio States, and Nebraskas out there (teams who always get the benefit of the doubt from the BCS voters). Whenever someone brings up TCU or Boise State, all we hear is the argument that they play weak schedules and could never hack it against stiff competition like the big BCS conference schools. I could sit here all day and talk about how college football has an even playing field; how on any given Saturday a Division 1AA team could beat any major BCS team; and how teams like Boise State and TCU could play any team in the country on any field and go home with the “W”. But I’d instead like to make a case for how Boise State is better than the voters realize; they are a better football team than TCU and even Auburn, and that the Broncos could, in fact, be ranked #2 in the BCS if they go undefeated.

Boise State’s defense is vastly underrated. They are 2^nd in the FBS in points allowed this year (12.8 ppg). They are 2^nd in the FBS in sacks on the season (35). They have allowed an average of 74.9 yards per game rushing and have only allowed 7 rushing touchdowns. They have allowed an average of 165.9 yards per game passing and have only allowed 7 passing touchdowns. This amounts to an average of 240.8 yards of opponent total offense allowed per game.

You may say, so what?- those stats are obviously the result of Boise State playing teams like New Mexico State, Wyoming, and Idaho… But I would answer you with this- What about when Boise State played then (10) Virginia Tech and then (24) Oregon State? Against the Hokies, Boise State allowed just 186 yards passing. Against Oregon State, Boise allowed just 78 yards rushing. Those numbers are right on with Boise’s season averages, so you must think Oregon State’s rushing attack is just as strong as Idaho’s, or that Virginia Tech’s passing attack is just as strong as Wyoming’s (insert sarcasm here). Incredibly, Boise State has held two of its opponents this year to negative total yards rushing (Wyoming and San Jose State).

Compare these stats to the defensive stats of the Auburn Tigers. Auburn allows 24.3 points per game, which places them 55^th overall in the FBS. They allow 241.3 yards per game passing and 114 yards per game rushing. These numbers may indicate that the opponents of the Auburn Tigers are generally better on offense then the opponents of the Boise State Broncos, but if you want to compare apples to apples, we need to look into when Auburn played seemingly “weak” opponents. When Auburn played Louisiana-Monroe, they gave up 232 yards passing. When they played Chattanooga, they gave up 101 yards rushing and 233 yards passing. These numbers are similar to Auburn’s season averages, so that must mean Chattanooga’s and Louisiana-Monroe’s offenses are comparable to the likes of LSU, Mississippi State, and Arkansas right?

I hope the sarcasm was noted in that last question. The point is, Auburn’s defense is weak. If Boise State were to play Auburn, I think the game would be decided by Boise’s defense, and the Broncos come out on top.

Now let’s compare Boise State’s offense to TCU’s offense. They are both very good statistically, nearly identical- but Boise State is better in points per game, passing yards per game, and average yards per pass. They are tied in average yards per rush (5.6), while TCU has the edge in rushing yards per game and total yards per game.

We can compare their defenses by looking at the two games where they played the same opponents- Boise State and TCU have each played Oregon State and Wyoming this year. Boise State held Wyoming to 135 yards, while TCU held Wyoming to 181 yards of total offense. Boise State held Oregon State to 237 total offensive yards, while TCU held Oregon State to 255 total yards of offense.

On the flip side, Boise State put up 648 yards of offense against Wyoming, while TCU put up 586 yards. Against Oregon State, Boise State put up 439 yards of offense, while TCU put up 453 yards.

Since TCU and Boise State are so similar statistically, we should go back to the last time they played each other- the 2010 Fiesta Bowl- and we can see that Boise State beat TCU 17-10. TCU lost 5 starters from last year’s squad to graduation, while Boise State lost 2 starters to graduation. It is this writer’s humble opinion that the above facts demonstrate a razor-thin edge for Boise State over TCU this year.

So is it possible for Oregon, Auburn or TCU to lose this year? And would Boise State move up in the rankings if those teams did lose? Oregon still has to play (18) Arizona and must travel to Corvalis to play rival Oregon State. Either of those games could hand Oregon their single loss for the year, and allow Boise State to move up in the rankings. Auburn must play at (12) Alabama and then probably play in the SEC title game. They could very well lose either of those matchups (maybe both), and get knocked out of the top ten in the BCS. TCU only has to beat New Mexico, and their destiny will then depend on Oregon and Auburn. If Oregon and Auburn fall, we may be looking at a #1 TCU and a #2 Boise State.

Sadly, the Broncos may not even get the chance to play in a BCS bowl game, should Auburn, TCU, and Oregon run the table. It will be a travesty if a 4-loss Pittsburgh team gets a BCS berth, while an undefeated Boise State does not. But that would be old hat for the BCS now wouldn’t it?

Jacque Henry - Boise State Correspondent